Good Question - what if gas cost $10 per gallon?

4 Responses to “Good Question - what if gas cost $10 per gallon?”

1. Emodude

   Marshall, you’re not doing a whole lot here to quell my fears of a peak oil scare. In fact, I thought your original idea was that as oil got more expensive, biofuels and alternate technologies would step up to compete. Seems to me this isn’t happening, at least not as quickly or fruitfully as perhaps I hoped.

   Give us something to help us keep the faith that society as we know it isn’t coming crashing into the ground.

   May 16th, 2008 | 2:49 pm
2. jsauter

   Emodude:

   I don’t particularly see anything in that article as frightening. It outlines changes that are going to occur as oil and gasoline becomes more expensive. Society isn’t going to come crashing down, it will just change.

   The reason you have not seen the new technologies that will help mitigate this problem is because they are either already here or in the works. Hybrid cars are here. Plug-ins are just around the corner. You can already buy lower energy appliances and there are many other ways you can reduce consumption. We in Alberta are already able to purchase wind generated power, and with every new subscriber new mills go up.

   You have to realize that the oil spike has only really been occurring since late 2003 early 2004. Sure, that is 4 years, but how could North America completely re-invent itself in that many years? Nuke plants, high speed rail and wind farms take a while to spin up. Likewise, $125 oil has only had a small impact to the world so far. It IS going to get more expensive, but it will have to get A LOT more expensive before green projects are accelerated more then they are now.

   Don’t worry about Peak Oil. There are many people out there that try to paint it with a negative tone, but really it is the greatest opportunity that modern society has. Humans survived many other peaks in commodities, and I suspect we will continue on our way.

   May 16th, 2008 | 11:21 pm
3. Emodude

   jsauter:

   I’m a skeptic, so naturally I’m not prone to believing outrageous claims. But what really scares me about peak oil is just how dependent we are on fossil fuels in every single aspect of our society, including the generation of alternative energies. You talk about wind power, nuclear, and high speed rail as alternatives, but have you considered just how much fossil fuel energy is required to create and generate those energies/ systems? Besides, you’ll never have a wind-generated car, and your groceries will never be delivered to the supermarket in a rail train, or a hybrid powered semi-truck. This is a slippery slope, and if we don’t get our act together before we drifted too far down that slope (which many people would argue we’re already too far) than it will be too late. Our dependency will outweigh our alternatives, and they will not have a chance to catch up.

   May 17th, 2008 | 8:41 pm
4. Marshall Brain

   Emodude, this is for you:

   Stranded in Suburbia

   From the article:

   If Europe’s example is any guide, here are the two secrets of coping with expensive oil: own fuel-efficient cars, and don’t drive them too much.

   Notice that I said that cars should be fuel-efficient — not that people should do without cars altogether. In Germany, as in the United States, the vast majority of families own cars (although German households are less likely than their U.S. counterparts to be multiple-car owners).

   But the average German car uses about a quarter less gas per mile than the average American car. By and large, the Germans don’t drive itsy-bitsy toy cars, but they do drive modest-sized passenger vehicles rather than S.U.V.’s and pickup trucks.

   In other words, we will change. Individual people will start making personal choices as they live their lives. When it is time to buy a new car, people will factor in $4/gallon gas and go smaller. When it is time to move to a new place, they will factor in $4/gallon gas and live closer to work. In the meantime, new energy sources (solar, wind, oil sands, etc.) will start coming online because they compete effectively with $120/barrel oil.

   The pocess does take time. If gas stays high, the cars we see in showrooms in 2011 will probably be different from the cars we see in 2008. But in 2009 there won’t be much difference. Car companies don’t generally react that quickly.

   May 19th, 2008 | 11:52 am

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